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du.finance

Economics & Investment Research Lab

du.finance is a cutting-edge research platform that democratizes institutional-grade economic analysis tools. Our mission is to make sophisticated investment research accessible to everyone, from individual investors to portfolio managers.

About du.finance Labs

We bridge the gap between complex economic theory and practical investment decisions by building intuitive, data-driven tools that provide clarity in an increasingly complex global economy.

What we do:

  • Economic Analysis: Transform raw economic data into actionable insights
  • Investment Research: Apply proven institutional frameworks to modern markets
  • Data Visualization: Make complex economic relationships easy to understand
  • AI-Powered Insights: Leverage machine learning for smarter economic analysis

The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock

Our flagship tool implements the legendary Merrill Lynch Investment Clock, a framework that has guided institutional investors for decades in understanding economic cycles and asset allocation.

🕐 The Four Quadrants

The Investment Clock maps economic conditions across two key dimensions:

📈 Growth Trend (Y-axis): Economic expansion vs. contraction
📊 Inflation Trend (X-axis): Rising vs. falling price pressures

This creates four distinct economic environments:

🌱 Recovery (↗️ Growth ↗️, ↘️ Inflation ↘️)

  • Characteristics: Economy accelerating, inflation falling
  • Traditional Assets: Stocks outperform bonds
  • Environment: Central banks accommodative, corporate profits rising
  • Indicators: Rising PMI, falling unemployment, stable prices

🔥 Overheat (↗️ Growth ↗️, ↗️ Inflation ↗️)

  • Characteristics: Strong growth but rising inflation concerns
  • Traditional Assets: Commodities shine, bonds underperform
  • Environment: Central banks becoming hawkish, capacity constraints
  • Indicators: High PMI, rising wages, increasing CPI

🌊 Stagflation (↘️ Growth ↘️, ↗️ Inflation ↗️)

  • Characteristics: Slowing growth with persistent inflation
  • Traditional Assets: Cash and inflation-hedged assets preferred
  • Environment: Policy dilemma, supply-side constraints
  • Indicators: Falling PMI, high inflation, rising unemployment

❄️ Recession (↘️ Growth ↘️, ↘️ Inflation ↘️)

  • Characteristics: Economic contraction, deflationary pressures
  • Traditional Assets: Government bonds perform best
  • Environment: Central banks cutting rates, fiscal stimulus
  • Indicators: Low PMI, falling CPI, rising unemployment

📍 How Countries Are Positioned

Each country's position on the clock is determined by analyzing key economic indicators:

  • Composite PMI: Overall economic momentum
  • Manufacturing PMI: Industrial sector health
  • CPI Year-over-Year: Inflation rate
  • Core PCE/CPI: Underlying inflation trends
  • GDPNow: Real-time growth estimates

Our platform uses both rule-based calculations and AI-powered analysis to determine the most accurate positioning.

🎯 How to Use the Investment Clock

  1. Identify Current Position: See where your country/region stands today
  2. Understand the Environment: Each quadrant suggests different market dynamics
  3. Anticipate Transitions: Watch for movement between quadrants
  4. Adjust Strategy: Align your portfolio with the economic cycle
  5. Monitor Indicators: Track the underlying data driving position changes

🤖 AI-Enhanced Analysis

Our Google Gemini-powered analysis goes beyond simple calculations by:

  • Contextual Understanding: Considers global events and interconnections
  • Pattern Recognition: Identifies complex relationships in economic data
  • Confidence Scoring: Provides transparency in analytical certainty
  • Reasoning: Explains the logic behind each positioning decision

Getting Started

Ready to explore the Global Investment Clock?

  1. 📖 Setup: Follow our Setup Guide to deploy your own instance
  2. 🔧 Configure: Set up your Supabase database and environment variables
  3. 📊 Analyze: Start with USA data, then add your countries of interest
  4. 🤖 Experiment: Try the AI analysis for deeper insights

Technical Foundation

Built with institutional-grade reliability:

  • Next.js 14: Production-ready React framework
  • TypeScript: Type-safe development
  • Supabase: Real-time PostgreSQL database
  • Google Gemini: Advanced AI analysis
  • Tailwind CSS: Responsive, professional design

Contributing to Economic Research

Join our mission to democratize economic analysis:

  • 🐛 Report Issues: Help us improve the platform
  • 💡 Suggest Features: What analysis tools do you need?
  • 📈 Share Data: Contribute economic indicators for new regions
  • 🧠 Research: Propose new analytical frameworks

License & Support

This project is open source under the MIT License.

Questions? Check our Setup Guide or create an issue.


Built with ❤️ by the du.finance team

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my baby Berkshire venture that focuses on economy, investment and impact

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